The most important world events of the past 24 hours
US warns allies to brace for possible renewed Iran strikes after midterms, Patriot system sent to Israel
🐱 Scout field reporter · US warns allies of possible renewed Iran strikes
US officials have told several Middle East countries and regional allies to prepare for potential renewed military action against Iran after next week's midterm elections, as well as possible Iranian retaliation, according to two diplomats briefed on the matter. The Wall Street Journal reported US forces are shipping an additional Patriot system to Israel and stockpiling munitions, though President Donald Trump has not made a final decision on new strikes. Trump said Tuesday that Iran wants a deal but that ending the war is "a question of when do I want to end it," warning Tehran against waiting for the election outcome.
Background: The US-Israeli war against Iran, launched on February 28, is now in its ninth month, with a preliminary peace deal having collapsed in July.
Sources: AP, The Wall Street Journal (via the New York Post) (3 outlets)
Israel : With nearly 90% counted, Netanyahu bloc leads 53–48 but still short of a majority
🐱 Scout anchor · Israel election count reversal
With about 86% of votes tallied in Israel's election, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc of right-wing, far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties is projected to win 53 seats, ahead of rival Gadi Eisenkot's opposition bloc on 48, with neither side reaching the 61 seats needed to govern and Arab parties projected at 19 seats. Netanyahu called for "a strong, right-wing national government" and said Israel and President Trump face a "singular historical opportunity" to remove the Iranian threat, while Trump said his endorsement helped and backed the possibility of a national unity government.
Background: The evening edition reported Netanyahu's bloc at 54 seats with over 70% counted, a sharp reversal of exit polls that had put Eisenkot ahead.
Fed holds rates at 3.75%–4.00% as Cook and Hammack dissent in favour of a hike
🐱 Scout banker · Fed holds rates steady
The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark rate unchanged on Wednesday at 3.75% to 4.00%, pausing after September's first rate increase in three years, saying inflation "remains elevated" and that accumulating more information would help determine the stance needed for a timely return to its 2% target. The committee voted 10–2, with Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissenting in favour of a quarter-point increase. Markets reacted modestly, with the S&P 500 up slightly and the 10-year Treasury yield around 5.03%.
Background: The Fed raised rates by a quarter point on September 16 under Chair Kevin Warsh, defying President Trump's demands for cuts, while September consumer inflation ran at 3.7% year on year.
Sources: AP (via syndication), Bloomberg (via syndication) (2 outlets)
Cyclone Arnab : Death toll rises to 5 after landfall in Andhra Pradesh as storm weakens
🐱 Scout rescue worker · Cyclone Arnab death toll rises
Cyclone Arnab has killed at least five people in Andhra Pradesh after making landfall early Wednesday, with Chief Minister N Chandrababu Naidu announcing 500,000 rupees in compensation for each victim's family; India's National Disaster Response Force had earlier put the toll at three, with 31 houses damaged. The storm crossed the coast with gusts up to 150 km/h and has weakened to a cyclonic storm, expected to become a deep depression by midnight, though flash-flood warnings remain for 13 districts.
Background: The evening edition reported no deaths at landfall, with more than 130,000 people evacuated in advance; the rising toll is the substantive new development.
Sources: National Disaster Response Force (via syndication), The Daily Jagran (2 outlets)
Political developments and international relations
Brazil : Bolsonaro lands in Miami, calls himself "the elected president" and claims election stolen
Defeated Brazilian presidential candidate Flávio Bolsonaro landed in Miami on Wednesday with his family after fleeing Brazil, with the US State Department set to issue entry visas; on arrival he declared himself "the elected president" and said criminals who stole Brazil's election had established a tyranny. President Trump said Tuesday he would approve Bolsonaro's refuge, calling the election "very strange," while Bolsonaro still refuses to concede Lula's 51.8% to 48.2% runoff win.
Background: The evening edition covered Bolsonaro's departure in defiance of a Supreme Court order to surrender his passport; his route via Argentina and Ecuador to Miami is the new development.
Sources: Reuters (via syndication), USA Today (2 outlets)
Germany's Asia-Pacific trade deficit set for record near €146 billion in 2026, China slowdown blamed
Germany's trade deficit with Asia-Pacific is set to hit a record of nearly €146 billion in 2026 as falling exports to China outweigh growth elsewhere in the region, according to a report by Germany Trade & Invest seen by Reuters. Exports to 29 core Asia-Pacific economies are expected to fall 3.2% to €185.3 billion while imports rise 6.4% to €330.9 billion, with German machinery exports to China down 18% and auto exports down 30% in the first seven months of 2026.
Background: Chancellor Friedrich Merz is visiting Japan, South Korea and Singapore this week and invited Japan on Wednesday to back a trade alliance of like-minded partners.
UK Chancellor Healey's first budget: bank surcharge up to 6%, £100 energy payment per household
Chancellor John Healey unveiled his first budget on Wednesday, keeping a £15 billion debt buffer while raising the bank surcharge from 3% to 6% for a limited period and giving millions of households a £100 energy payment to ease cost-of-living pressures. The budget puts Britain on track to eliminate the current budget deficit within three years, the 10-year gilt yield eased slightly to 5.3252%, but homebuilder shares fell more than 4% on unanswered questions about the "Your First Home" scheme.
Background: Healey had been expected to raise taxes on banks, gambling firms and online marketplaces such as Amazon and Temu to fund support for poorer households.
Gulf anxiety keeps oil near $115: Riyadh airport saw nearly 90% of flights cancelled
Reuters analysis on Wednesday put Brent crude at about $115 a barrel as Gulf anxiety continues to price into oil, with Cirium data showing almost nine in ten scheduled flights at Riyadh airport were cancelled between October 8 and October 25, alongside 42% at Dammam and 46.7% at Abha. The analysis said markets are still waiting for President Trump's next move on Iran, and the risk premium in oil may only start to fade if no new strikes follow the US election.
Background: The Houthis claimed this week to have hit Saudi Arabia's largest refinery, and an October 10 strike on Riyadh airport killed 13 people, the kingdom's deadliest attack in more than a decade.
Tech companies, research breakthroughs and digital policy
Microsoft beats, Alphabet misses: Azure up 48% while Google cloud doubling fails to save shares
Microsoft reported fiscal first-quarter revenue of $92.3 billion, beating the $90.7 billion consensus, with Azure revenue up 48% to $33.2 billion and shares rising about 2% after hours. Alphabet reported third-quarter revenue of $127.6 billion, just below expectations, with cloud sales doubling to $30.7 billion but Search and YouTube advertising missing estimates and free cash flow turning negative $9.1 billion, sending shares down more than 10% after hours. Alphabet's quarterly capital spending approached $51.4 billion as AI infrastructure costs mounted.
Background: The two reports are the market's latest test of whether heavy AI spending is paying off, following SK Hynix's record quarter and Anthropic's public IPO filing.
Sources: Reuters, The Wall Street Journal (2 outlets)
Unitree's Q3 profit falls 17.4%, a test for China's robotics boom
Unitree, China's best-known robot maker, reported third-quarter net profit of 112.7 million yuan ($16.9 million), down 17.4% from a year earlier, in its first earnings result since its blockbuster August listing. Reuters said the result comes as China's robotics sector faces cooling investor sentiment and a broader tech market rout, making Unitree a bellwether for the sector.
Background: Unitree's August listing was a landmark for China's robotics boom, which has since faced a valuation correction.
Military developments, security situations and conflicts
UK pledges extra £10 billion for Ukraine in budget, including £500 million urgent military funding
Chancellor John Healey told lawmakers on Wednesday that Britain would provide £10 billion ($13.29 billion) of additional economic and military support to Ukraine, made up of £7 billion of economic support over three years and £3 billion in export finance capacity, including £500 million in urgent military funding for this winter. Healey said he and Prime Minister Andy Burnham had spoken to President Volodymyr Zelenskiy before the budget, and Zelenskiy told them "you've made my day."
Background: Russia's war in Ukraine is approaching the end of its fifth year, and Britain is also using the budget to fund its NATO defence commitment.
US prepares for possible new Iran campaign: Patriot for Israel, munitions stockpiled
The Wall Street Journal reported that US forces are reinforcing Israel's missile defences, restocking weapons and shifting troops away from exposed bases as preparations accelerate for another intensive campaign against Iran after the November 3 midterms. President Trump has publicly raised the prospect of another "little Epic Fury" operation, but has not formally approved one, and US officials have warned Gulf governments to prepare for Iranian retaliation.
Background: A preliminary peace deal collapsed in July when Tehran resumed attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, after the US-Israeli campaign launched on February 28.
Sources: The Wall Street Journal (via the New York Post), The Daily Caller (2 outlets)
New 6.0-magnitude quake strikes off Vanuatu coast, no tsunami threat reported
A 6.0-magnitude earthquake struck off the coast of Vanuatu on Wednesday, the US Geological Survey said, centred 214 kilometres north-west of Port-Olry at a depth of 10 kilometres, with no tsunami threat reported. Vanuatu lies on the Pacific "Ring of Fire," and a 6.2-magnitude quake struck its coast last Sunday.
Background: This is a separate event from the 7.2-magnitude Vanuatu quake of October 24, and no casualties or damage have been reported.
Sources: Qatar News Agency, The Watchers (citing US Geological Survey data) (2 outlets)
Indonesia deploys hundreds of security personnel ahead of student protests in Jakarta
Hundreds of Indonesian security personnel were deployed in Jakarta on Wednesday, with armoured vehicles visible in central districts, ahead of student protests against President Prabowo Subianto's policies and his government's handling of forest fires. Students from the University of Indonesia planned protests in several spots in the capital, calling for the Sumatra and Borneo wildfires to be declared a national disaster and for a halt to populist spending such as the free meals programme.
Background: Prabowo's approval ratings have fallen steadily since late last year, two years into his presidency, and Indonesia's last major protest wave came in August, when hundreds were detained.
China-related news (international media coverage only)
Mozambique says China agrees to reschedule some debt payments
Mozambique said China's government had agreed to let it reschedule some debt payments, a deal it said would relieve immediate pressure on its public finances, though the finance ministry statement did not give the amount rescheduled. Official data show Mozambique owed China about $1.28 billion at end-June, nearly 15% of its total external debt, making China its largest bilateral creditor, and a World Bank and IMF analysis has deemed its debt burden unsustainable.
Background: Mozambique's debt problems date to a hidden-debt scandal that erupted in 2016, compounded by delays to major natural gas projects.
Australia has not moved to ban Chinese EVs at military bases, defence minister says
Defence Minister Richard Marles said on Wednesday that Australia has not taken any step to restrict Chinese electric vehicles at its military bases, and that the United States has not asked it to do so, even though the US military banned BYD cars at Kadena Air Base in Japan as an "unacceptable" and "unmitigable" risk. Australia is one of BYD's largest export markets, alongside Brazil and Britain, helped by relatively low trade barriers.
Background: The Kadena ban was announced last week, prompting questions about whether US allies would follow suit.
