The most important world events of the past 24 hours
Israel : Exit polls point to deadlock, Eisenkot bloc 52 seats to Netanyahu bloc 50
🐱 Scout anchor · Israel election exit polls point to deadlock
Exit polls after Israel's Tuesday election put former military chief Gadi Eisenkot's opposition bloc at about 52–53 seats, ahead of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc at about 50, with neither side reaching the 61 seats needed to govern. Likud remains the largest single party at about 24–25 seats, Eisenkot's Yashar at about 21–23, while turnout topped 80% and Arab parties rose to about 17–18 seats, leaving them as the key variable.
Background: The vote was Israel's first national election since the Hamas attacks of October 7, 2023, with preliminary official results expected from Wednesday.
Severe Cyclone Arnab is expected to make landfall on the Andhra Pradesh coast on Wednesday morning, and India's east coast began large-scale evacuations on Tuesday: nearly 50,000 people had moved to shelters by Monday night, with about 400,000 more estimated to need evacuation, at least 12 trains cancelled and services on 53 southern coastal rail routes suspended. Nepal also warned the storm could bring torrential rain, snowstorms and avalanches to the Himalayas from Thursday night through Saturday.
Background: Arnab formed over the Bay of Bengal and has intensified since Monday, while Odisha closed schools and colleges in five districts for Tuesday and Wednesday.
Egypt's parliament approves Saudi defence aid: jets and air defences, but no ground troops in Yemen
🐱 Scout Egypt anchor · Egypt's parliament approves Saudi defence aid
Egypt's parliament on Monday authorised President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi by at least a two-thirds majority to take "all necessary measures" to help Saudi Arabia defend itself against Houthi attacks; a regional official said Egypt could deploy aircraft and air defence systems to intercept missiles and drones, but no ground troops in Yemen. The vote was held in closed session with no tally published, no formal Saudi request for troops has been announced, and the 11 MPs of the Social Democratic Party abstained, citing unclear goals, duration and costs.
Background: The vote follows a deadly Houthi attack on Riyadh airport this month, and came the same day Saudi, Turkish and Pakistani officials met Iranian officials in Tehran to seek de-escalation.
Political developments and international relations
Brazil : Bolsonaro first vows to overturn the election, then drops the challenge
After Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won Brazil's presidential runoff with 51.8% against Flávio Bolsonaro's 48.2%, Bolsonaro first said he could not recognise the result and would ask courts to annul it, objecting to a Supreme Court justice's last-minute decision to extend voting by two hours. On Tuesday, Folha de S.Paulo reported he had dropped the challenge after supporters and lawyers warned of its legal weaknesses, with his campaign instead preparing a complaint alleging abuse of power by the Lula camp.
Background: The electoral court's president has said the voting extension had no effect on the result; Lula won by about 4.4 million votes to secure a fourth term.
Sources: CNN, Folha de S.Paulo (via syndication) (2 outlets)
AI ads in US midterms top $137 million, only 27% labelled as AI-generated
The Wesleyan Media Project tracked more than $137 million spent on 220 ads at least partly generated by AI ahead of the US midterms, across 34 states through October 11, with only 27% carrying a disclaimer saying AI was used; in the entire 2024 cycle the same project found less than $50,000 in AI ad spending. Republican candidates and groups account for about 80% of the ads and nearly 90% of the spending, while 30 states require AI ad disclosure but no federal rule exists.
Background: The November 3 midterms will decide control of Congress, and experts warn that "slopaganda" — low-quality AI propaganda — could erode voter trust.
Sources: GeekWire, Wesleyan Media Project (via syndication) (2 outlets)
Fed decision due today: markets expect a hold, December hike still the big question
The Federal Reserve's two-day meeting concludes on Wednesday, with the decision due at 2 p.m. Eastern Time and Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference at 2:30 p.m.; in a Reuters poll of 100 economists conducted October 16–20, 94 expected rates to stay at 3.75%–4.00%, while all 100 expected a hike in December. With September inflation at 3.7% and energy prices up more than 20% year on year, markets will watch for any hawkish signal from Warsh.
Background: The Fed raised rates by a quarter point on September 16, its first hike since July 2023.
Sources: Reuters (via syndication), The Boston Report (2 outlets)
US stocks close higher Tuesday: Nasdaq up 1.18%, S&P up 0.60%, Dow nearly flat
US stocks rose on Tuesday ahead of the Fed decision and big-tech earnings: the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.18% to 26,477.81, the S&P 500 rose 0.60% to 7,722.60, the Russell 2000 added 1.16%, and the Dow edged up just 0.03% to 52,377.57, while the VIX fell to 17.52 and gold rose to about $4,073. Alphabet and Microsoft report after Wednesday's close, with Amazon and Apple due Thursday.
Background: Monday's rally was driven by Anthropic's public IPO filing, which revived appetite for AI names.
Meituan launches $1.2 billion dim sum bond sale after orders top $3 billion
Reuters reported on Tuesday that Meituan launched an 8 billion yuan (about $1.2 billion) dual-tranche offshore yuan bond: a 4.5 billion yuan five-year tranche at 2.50% and a 3.5 billion yuan 10-year tranche at 3.10%, after combined orders topped 20 billion yuan, above the roughly 7 billion yuan target reported on Monday. Proceeds will refinance existing offshore debt and fund general corporate purposes, with Moody's rating the bonds Baa1 and S&P and Fitch BBB+, all with negative outlooks.
Background: Meituan returned to profitability in the second quarter after a year of subsidy-driven delivery price wars.
Tech companies, research breakthroughs and digital policy
Starlink row escalates: Musk says Ukraine broke terms with offensive drone strikes, Kyiv denies it
SpaceX chief Elon Musk said on Saturday that Ukraine's military violated Starlink's terms of service by using it for offensive drone strikes, and that the "loophole" was closed last week; Ukraine's defence ministry said full Starlink and Starshield access was restored on Saturday, while officials countered that civilian Starlink does not work over Russian territory and so cannot be used for long-range strikes. The row follows more than a week of speed limits on drones of about 100 miles per hour, with Kyiv saying speeds above 400 km/h have now been restored.
Background: Starlink and its military version Starshield are critical to Ukraine's front-line communications and drone operations, and President Donald Trump was reported to have personally asked Musk to restore access.
Sources: CNN, The Verge (via syndication) (2 outlets)
Dutch chip-equipment maker ASM pulls its 2030 target forward to 2027 after a record quarter
Dutch semiconductor equipment maker ASM International reported a record third quarter on Tuesday, with revenue of 1.16 billion euros, and pulled its target of more than 5.7 billion euros in annual revenue forward from 2030 to 2027, citing sustained demand from the shift to gate-all-around architecture at advanced nodes and AI-driven equipment orders. The company also said its first-of-its-kind PECVD flowable carbon film technology for filling nanometre-scale trenches has entered high-volume manufacturing. (single source, unverified)
Background: The AI infrastructure boom is pushing equipment orders to unprecedented levels, with leading foundries expanding advanced-node capacity.
Military developments, security situations and conflicts
UK : Two men charged over suspected Iran-linked activity at RAF Fairford
British prosecutors on Tuesday charged two 24-year-old London men under the National Security Act: Mohmed Abdulkarim is accused of conduct likely to materially assist a foreign intelligence service between August 31 and September 28, which police believe to be Iran's, while Nouman Essghir is charged with entering a prohibited place for a purpose prejudicial to the UK on August 22. Prosecutors said Abdulkarim, acting at the behest of a man called "Ali", arranged for five men to drive three vans to RAF Fairford, and one of them called police after being told there was a bomb in a van.
Background: Five men were arrested outside the base in the early hours of September 27, after which US bombers were withdrawn from Fairford on security grounds; Iran denies any involvement.
Russia-Ukraine : Oleshky local ceasefire runs to November 1, but Kyiv hit again the same day
Russia and Ukraine began a localised ceasefire around Russian-occupied Oleshky on Tuesday, with Moscow saying it stopped shelling toward Kherson from 4 a.m. Moscow time and Kyiv's human rights commissioner Dmytro Lubinets confirming Ukraine is honouring its commitments; the pause runs to November 1 in four stages — ceasefire, demining, aid delivery, evacuation — with the humanitarian operation itself expected to start October 29. The ceasefire covers only Oleshky: Kyiv was hit again on Tuesday, with its Southern Bridge and subway infrastructure damaged and traffic suspended.
Background: Oleshky, on the Dnipro's east bank opposite Kherson, has been held by Russia since the first days of the February 2022 invasion, and about 2,000 civilians there face acute shortages of food and medicine.
Pope Leo confirms November Latin America trip and will meet clergy abuse survivors
The Vatican confirmed on Monday that 71-year-old Pope Leo, recovering well from lung cancer surgery, will travel to Uruguay, Argentina and Peru on November 6–17 as planned — a 31,000 km, 36-speech tour, among the most intense papal trips in decades — and on Tuesday said he will meet several survivors of sexual abuse by clergy during the trip to express closeness to those who suffered. Leo had the lower lobe of his right lung removed on October 13 and has gradually resumed duties, though he cancelled a day trip to Assisi on Tuesday on doctors' advice.
Background: Leo, born in the US, served as a missionary and bishop in Peru for decades, and met seven French abuse survivors for two hours last month.
Gabon : Search continues after rig sinking, death toll accounts still differ
Sea and air search continued on Tuesday after the Prospector 5 jack-up rig sank off Gabon on Saturday night: of 115 people aboard, 110 have been brought ashore, while Borr Drilling still lists five as missing; other reports say one Indian worker has been confirmed dead and four remain missing, so the death toll is not yet settled. Gabon's petroleum ministry has ordered a technical investigation, with preliminary findings pointing to a "punch-through" during leg preloading, when a leg suddenly sank deeper into the seabed and destabilised the rig.
Background: The rig was preparing for BW Energy's Dussafu offshore campaign and had not yet begun drilling; the nearby MaBoMo facility shut down as a precaution, with no harmful discharge reported.
China-related news (international media coverage only)
China to send special envoy to the Middle East as Beijing warns of conflict spillover
Reuters reported on Tuesday that Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun said Beijing is highly concerned about conflicts in the Middle East and surrounding regions and will soon send a special envoy to visit countries in the region to strengthen communication, promote dialogue, help ease tensions and prevent further deterioration. Guo urged all parties to resolve differences through dialogue and negotiation, and voiced concern about spillover to the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea.
Background: The announcement follows Monday's talks in Tehran between Saudi, Turkish and Pakistani officials and Iran, and Egypt's parliamentary approval of Saudi defence aid the same day.
Mbappe dropped by Chinese brands over alleged Mao meme remarks, video unverified
Reuters reported on Tuesday that France and Real Madrid forward Kylian Mbappe has been dropped by a string of Chinese brands, including Eastroc Beverage, Mengniu and Milkground, after a video circulating online appeared to show him saying the funniest meme he had seen of himself morphed his face onto "a Chinese dictator", with state television halting broadcasts of LaLiga matches involving him. Reuters said it has not been able to authenticate the video, and Mbappe's representatives did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
Background: The "dictator Mbappe" memes began as fans mocking his influence at Paris Saint-Germain, took off around his 2022 contract extension, and followed him to Real Madrid in 2024.
