Drone strike on market in disputed Abyei region kills at least 73; South Sudan says toll above 150
On October 19, drones struck a market in the disputed Abyei region on the Sudan-South Sudan border. Reuters, citing Abyei's caretaker information minister, reports at least 73 people were killed; the minister accused Sudan's army of carrying out the attack but provided no evidence. South Sudan officials said on October 21 that the death toll has risen above 150, with fires hampering body recovery and the toll expected to climb; about 8,000 people have been displaced. Diplomatic sources said the strike hit a fuel storage facility in the market that the RSF had allegedly used for supplies in the past, while Abyei officials denied any RSF presence in the area. South Sudan's foreign ministry summoned Sudan's ambassador in protest, and the UN strongly condemned the series of attacks. (Casualty figures are one-sided South Sudanese claims; attribution is disputed and unverified.)
Shabwah strike death toll rises to 60–73, all new recruits aged 18–20
An Associated Press Tuesday dispatch citing Yemeni officials puts the death toll from the Shabwah Al-Alam training camp missile strike at 60 — a separate AP wire says 73 — all new recruits aged 18 to 20, with more than 200 wounded and at least a dozen still missing, making it the deadliest single strike since Yemen's civil war reignited this year. Shabwa governor Awad Ibn al-Wazir said on Al Arabiya television that the dead were recruits from across the province being trained to provide security in Shabwa, not for combat operations: "These recruits have never before participated in any mobilisation or on any front ... they were (part of) a non-offensive security force." At least 15 of those killed were from a single Yemeni tribe, and several seriously wounded recruits were transferred to hospitals in other provinces in life-threatening condition. Videos analysed by AP showed many motionless bodies lying on the camp's sandy ground. Figures remain preliminary and may rise.
The most important world events of the past 24 hours
Oslo talks conclude: Witkoff to fly to St. Petersburg Wednesday with proposals; Zelensky says US intelligence sharing restored
🐱 Scout diplomat · Oslo Ukraine peace talks
Volodymyr Zelensky met US envoy Steve Witkoff, Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre and Finnish President Alexander Stubb in Oslo on Tuesday, discussing security guarantees, territorial questions, sanctions and post-war European security. Zelensky said afterward that US intelligence sharing and early warning on Russian missile strikes were "working now," and proposed a trilateral leaders' meeting of the US, Ukraine and Russia. Støre announced Witkoff would fly to St. Petersburg on Wednesday to present the Oslo proposals to the Russian leadership, potentially paving the way for a leaders-level meeting. (Follow-up)
Background: A day earlier Zelensky had publicly accused the Pentagon of deliberately delaying Patriot interceptor deliveries and cutting off intelligence warnings, sending US-Ukraine relations into a tailspin.
Sources: Reuters, Deutsche Welle, Radio Purple, EuropeSays (4 outlets)
France to mount "massive" Saturday security operation with troops; government admits it failed to anticipate violence
🐱 Scout France anchor · France deploys troops for protests
The French government announced Tuesday it would mount a "massive" security deployment ahead of fresh protests on Saturday, October 24. Interior Minister Laurent Nuñez confirmed troops from Operation Sentinelle would take to the streets on static security duties, freeing police to keep order. Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu admitted the government had failed to anticipate the scale of the October 17 violence and blamed far-left groups. Targeted curfews were extended through Tuesday night in Paris, Lyon, Lille, Bordeaux, Nice and other cities. (Follow-up)
Background: More than 500,000 people protested on October 17 over living costs and public-service cuts; some demonstrations degenerated into looting and arson, with about 1,200 arrests and 150 police officers injured — France's worst unrest in years.
Shabwah camp strike death toll rises to 73, deadliest single attack of Yemen's renewed war
🐱 Scout field reporter · Shabwah training camp attack
The Houthi ballistic-missile strike on the Al-Alam recruit training camp in Shabwah province has killed 73 people and wounded more than 200, with 14 still missing, the provincial media office told Reuters on Tuesday. Most of the dead were recruits aged 18 to 20, making it the deadliest single strike since Yemen's civil war reignited this year. Yemen's government has asked the UN to designate the Houthis a terrorist organization; Houthi spokesmen insist the camp was run by Saudi officers. (Follow-up)
Background: Since September the Houthis have pushed toward the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and kept up missile attacks on Saudi airports and energy sites; Yemen's 2022 truce collapsed and the civil war reignited this summer.
Sources: Reuters, Associated Press, Al Arabiya (3 outlets)
Channel 12 poll: opposition 55 seats vs Netanyahu bloc 51; Trump's endorsement shows no boost
🐱 Scout US anchor · Israel election poll
A Channel 12 poll released Tuesday evening — the first since Donald Trump's weekend endorsement of Benjamin Netanyahu — puts the opposition bloc at 55 seats and Netanyahu's camp at 51, both far short of the 61 needed to govern, with Arab parties holding about 14 seats likely to decide coalition talks. The result suggests Trump's backing has given the governing camp no visible lift. A day earlier Vice President JD Vance declined to follow Trump's lead, saying "I endorse American candidates" and would not get involved in Israeli elections. (Follow-up)
Background: Israel votes October 27 in its first national election since the October 7, 2023 Hamas attacks; multiple polls show neither bloc able to form a government alone.
Sources: Channel 12 (via The Levant Files, EuropeSays), CNN, Wall Street Journal (4 outlets)
Political developments and international relations
Rubio in India: US-India trade deal "very close"; Russia sanctions waiver gets 60-day review
Secretary of State Marco Rubio arrived in Mumbai on Tuesday for talks with External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar, telling reporters in Uzbekistan beforehand that a US-India trade deal was "very close." Rubio said Trump's waiver of Graham Act sanctions on Russia took the trade talks into account — the law would have hit India, one of the top five buyers of Russian oil, with tariffs of up to 100%. He added the waiver runs on a 60-day review clock and Trump has made no final decision.
Background: Trump signed the executive order waiving the sanctions late Friday, two days before the law was due to take effect; India is among Russia's largest crude buyers.
Turkey submits Saudi-Pakistan mutual defense pact to parliament for ratification
Turkey has submitted the Mecca mutual-defense agreement signed with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan to parliament for ratification, three parliamentary sources told Reuters on Tuesday. Signed in August, the pact treats an armed attack on one member as an attack on all; the three countries agreed earlier this month on a "rapid deployment" of military force in Saudi Arabia. Turkish officials say Ankara's contribution is limited to equipment, intelligence sharing and weapons systems, with no ground troops abroad. (single source, unverified)
Background: The move follows Turkey's public condemnation of escalating Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and its offer to meet Riyadh's military-technology needs; the foreign affairs committee could take it up as early as Friday.
Sources: Reuters (exclusive; single source, unverified)
Indonesia stocks rebound 5.65% Tuesday as exchange pushes reforms to answer MSCI downgrade warning
The Jakarta Composite Index closed up 5.65% (+282 points) at 5,278.89 on Tuesday, with 694 stocks advancing, after a two-day 14.8% rout triggered by MSCI's downgrade warning. The Indonesia Stock Exchange said it would strip highly concentrated-ownership stocks from the benchmark, tighten the daily lower price limit from 15% to 7%, and require disclosure of shareholdings above 1%. Analysts called the bounce technical; foreign selling pressure persists and the rupiah remains near record lows. (Follow-up)
Background: MSCI is considering demoting Indonesia from emerging-market to standalone status; Goldman Sachs estimates passive outflows of up to $5.6 billion, and Indonesian stocks are down about 40% this year — the world's worst-performing major market.
Sources: Reuters (via Funds Global Asia, IndonesiaNow), IDNFinancials (3 outlets)
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Saturday that Trump's executive order waiving Graham Act sanctions and tariffs on Russia runs on a 60-day review period while the White House assesses the impact on the global and US economies — and that Trump has made no final decision. The waiver is immediate relief for India, one of the top five Russian-oil buyers facing tariffs of up to 100%; Rubio said a US-India trade deal is "very close." Brent eased to around $109 after the waiver news, though Houthi attack claims keep prices above $100. (Follow-up)
Background: Named for the late Senator Lindsey Graham, the law was signed by Trump last month and was due to take effect this week; it cut the tariff ceiling from an original 500% to 100% and gave the president a national-interest waiver.
Tech companies, research breakthroughs and digital policy
OpenAI seeks $30 billion at $1.4 trillion valuation, racing to lock in funds before Anthropic IPO
OpenAI is racing to secure about $30 billion in investor commitments at a valuation exceeding $1.4 trillion, aiming to close before rival Anthropic's expected mid-November IPO, two people familiar with the matter told Reuters on Tuesday. SoftBank, Abu Dhabi's MGX and other existing backers are in talks to join. OpenAI told investors revenue accelerated after the GPT-6 Astra launch, reaching $50 billion in annualized revenue with $70 billion expected by year-end; it was last valued at $852 billion in March. (single source, unverified)
Background: Anthropic is negotiating a second roughly $45 billion compute deal with Nscale as the two labs compete head-on for capital and compute; Anthropic previously raised $65 billion at a $965 billion valuation.
Sources: Reuters (via Seeking Alpha, The Hindu BusinessLine) (3 outlets)
Military developments, security situations and conflicts
US fired more interceptors defending Israel in Iran war than Israel itself; THAAD stocks halved, WaPo reports
The US military fired more interceptors defending Israel during the US-Israeli war on Iran than Israeli forces fired themselves, the Washington Post reported, citing Pentagon assessments: over 200 THAAD interceptors — roughly half the US inventory — plus more than 100 SM-3 and SM-6 missiles from Navy warships, versus fewer than 100 Israeli Arrow and about 90 David's Sling interceptors. CSIS says US Patriot stocks fell below 1,000 missiles by July with about 250 THAAD interceptors left, and replenishing them could take years, weakening US readiness for a Pacific confrontation with China. (single source, unverified)
Background: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth made an unannounced visit to Israel on Monday to meet Netanyahu; Trump is weighing a new large-scale offensive against Iran, reportedly including "Mother of All Bombs" options against Iranian energy and nuclear sites.
Sources: Washington Post (via Daily Caller) (single source, unverified)
Iran issues fresh warnings: IRGC flags 7 undersea cables under Hormuz as "new targets"; Khamenei adviser threatens "nine countries"
An IRGC spokesman said Monday that seven major undersea internet cables run beneath the Strait of Hormuz and that "new targets will be unveiled, new weapons will be unveiled." Supreme National Security Council secretary Mohsen Rezaei had earlier warned that $2 trillion worth of regional undersea cables, data centers and AI facilities would be "within our reach" if war resumes. Separately, Supreme Leader adviser Mohammad Mokhber said Iran would strike "nine countries" — unnamed — if the US hits Iranian military bases or petrochemical sites again. (single source, unverified)
Background: After the February 28 US-Israeli strikes on Iran, Tehran closed the Strait of Hormuz; Kpler says crude flows through the strait fell to a seven-day average of 8.5 million barrels per day last week, less than half the prior week, with at least 10 confirmed incidents involving commercial vessels.
Storm Adam follow-up: 1 dead in France, red alert for Corsica; Spain toll at 5
Storm Adam swept southern France on Tuesday, killing a man near Saint-Mitre-les-Remparts outside Marseille after floodwater swept him into the Berre lagoon; the mayor said "we've never seen anything like this." Rivers burst their banks across the Gard, sections of the A9 highway closed, and firefighters rescued dozens overnight. Northern Corsica was placed under France's highest red alert for rain and flooding. Spain's confirmed death toll stands at at least five, with one more under verification. (Follow-up)
Background: The floods revive memories of the October 2024 Valencia catastrophe that killed more than 230; scientists say human-driven climate change is intensifying Mediterranean autumn storms.
Sources: The Sun (AFP photos, mayor via ICI) (single source, unverified)
Australia Haines case follow-up: suspect charged on three counts, in court Wednesday; PM calls attack "clearly deliberate"
Victoria Police late Tuesday charged 43-year-old Brendan Nugent with dangerous driving causing serious injury, intentionally causing serious injury, and harming a Commonwealth public official over the ramming of independent MP Helen Haines; he faces Wangaratta Magistrates' Court on Wednesday. Police call the attack "targeted" but an isolated incident, with no motive established. Haines lost one leg and doctors are fighting to save the other; she remains critical. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said the car had turned around and come back at her — "clearly deliberate." (Follow-up)
Background: Haines, the independent MP for Indi, was struck by a Toyota LandCruiser outside her electorate office in Wangaratta on Monday afternoon; violent attacks on politicians are extremely rare in Australia.
Sources: Reuters, CNN, Australian Associated Press (3 outlets)
China-related news (international media coverage only)
China's September US soybean imports rebound to 360,000 tons from zero a year earlier
China imported 360,878 metric tons of US soybeans in September, up from zero a year earlier, customs data showed Tuesday, as cargoes bought after last year's trade-war settlement kept arriving at Chinese ports. Total September soybean imports were 11.88 million tons, down 7.7% year-on-year; January–September imports from the US fell 34% to 11.06 million tons while shipments from Brazil rose 3.4% to 65.84 million tons, Reuters reported.
Background: Beijing has bought about 12 million tons of US soybeans since the leaders' summit — well below pre-trade-war levels — and is more than halfway to its 25-million-ton 2026/27 purchase target, though a 10% additional tariff keeps private crushers on the sidelines.
New York State announces $375 million rare-earths plant to cut dependence on China
New York Governor Kathy Hochul announced Tuesday that Phoenix Tailings will build a $375 million commercial-scale rare-earths processing facility in Rochester, handling about 18,000 tons of material a year, with partial operations starting next year and full production in 2028; the state offered $3 million in performance-based tax credits. The Pentagon had earlier committed $500 million in long-term debt financing for the company's US midstream processing plans, Reuters reported.
Background: The US is pouring billions into rare-earths capacity to loosen China's grip on the minerals — used in EVs through fighter jets — but most new capacity will not come online until 2027 or later; China remains the world's largest producer, with September rare-earth exports up 6.7% year-on-year.
