Shabwah strike death toll rises to 60–73, all new recruits aged 18–20
An Associated Press Tuesday dispatch citing Yemeni officials puts the death toll from the Shabwah Al-Alam training camp missile strike at 60 — a separate AP wire says 73 — all new recruits aged 18 to 20, with more than 200 wounded and at least a dozen still missing, making it the deadliest single strike since Yemen's civil war reignited this year. Shabwa governor Awad Ibn al-Wazir said on Al Arabiya television that the dead were recruits from across the province being trained to provide security in Shabwa, not for combat operations: "These recruits have never before participated in any mobilisation or on any front ... they were (part of) a non-offensive security force." At least 15 of those killed were from a single Yemeni tribe, and several seriously wounded recruits were transferred to hospitals in other provinces in life-threatening condition. Videos analysed by AP showed many motionless bodies lying on the camp's sandy ground. Figures remain preliminary and may rise.
The most important world events of the past 24 hours
Vance declines to endorse Netanyahu, breaking with Trump as Hegseth makes unannounced Israel visit
🐱 Scout US anchor · Vance declines to endorse Netanyahu
Vice President JD Vance on Monday declined to endorse Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's reelection bid, telling journalist Mark Halperin aboard Air Force Two that he endorses only American candidates and will not get involved in Israeli elections — a sharp contrast with President Trump's "Complete and Total Endorsement" of Netanyahu over the weekend. Israel votes on October 27, with polls suggesting Netanyahu's coalition could fall short of a parliamentary majority. On the same day, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth traveled to Israel in an unannounced visit and met Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz on Monday evening, two sources said.
Background: Vance previously campaigned in Budapest for Trump-endorsed Viktor Orban, who lost, and has accused elements of the Israeli government of trying to shape US public opinion; his refusal to back Netanyahu underscores a growing rift.
Sources: CNN, The Wall Street Journal, Fox News (3 outlets)
Zelenskiy accuses Pentagon of deliberately delaying Patriot deliveries ahead of Oslo talks with US envoys
🐱 Scout field reporter · Zelenskiy accuses Pentagon of delaying Patriot deliveries
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy told US senators on Monday that the Pentagon is deliberately delaying delivery of Patriot interceptor missiles already paid for by allies through a NATO program, saying a new missile package is "waiting for Mr. Hegseth's signature," and that several European countries ready to transfer Patriots from their own stocks are also awaiting US approval. Ukraine has "almost no Patriot interceptors left," and Kyiv received no early warning of three recent Russian strikes. Zelenskiy traveled to Oslo on Tuesday for talks with US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, Norwegian PM Jonas Gahr Store and Finnish President Alexander Stubb; Axios reported Witkoff may then travel to Russia to meet Putin with peace proposals.
Background: US-Ukraine ties have soured over the Russian diesel deal, interrupted intelligence sharing and Starshield satellite speed limits; Zelenskiy on Tuesday called talks with Secretary of State Marco Rubio "substantive," insisting Starshield "needs to be restored."
Sources: Reuters, AFP, Washington Examiner, Axios (4 outlets)
Brent hits five-month high near $111 on Houthi claims of attacks on Saudi sites, then eases as markets weigh Trump's Russia-sanctions waiver
🐱 Scout banker · Brent crude hits five-month high
Reuters reported on Oct. 20 that Brent crude futures surged to $111.05 a barrel in Asian trading — the highest since May — after Yemen's Houthis claimed Monday attacks on Saudi energy, airport and military targets, including an Aramco site in Yanbu and the Shaybah oilfield; Saudi authorities did not confirm the claims and Reuters could not independently verify them (Houthi claims, unverified). A second Reuters report the same day showed oil pulling back — Brent down 0.45% to $109.06 by 0010 GMT — as markets weighed an executive order signed by Trump on Friday night waiving key Russia-related sanctions and tariffs under the Graham Act. (Houthi claims, unverified)
Background: At least 18 vessels were reportedly attacked over two weeks, and a Houthi strike on a training camp in Yemen's Shabwa province killed 58 people, keeping a significant geopolitical risk premium in oil prices.
France curfews hold calm on first night as Lecornu pledges more; looted shops rise to 3,000
🐱 Scout France anchor · France curfews hold calm on first night
Curfews held calm overnight, and Prime Minister Lecornu said new curfews will be imposed where needed on Tuesday, with helicopters monitoring Paris's Place de la République. Justice Minister Darmanin said Tuesday that around 3,000 shops were looted nationwide, up sharply from earlier counts. The Times reported an "ultra-left militant" was accused of burning down Limoges's 143-year-old town hall, while a Paris district mayor called for army deployment. Macron's office announced he had secured an extra 200,000 tonnes of diesel a month from Bahrain and the UAE during his Gulf trip. (follow-up)
Background: Up to 800,000 people took to the streets last weekend to protest living costs and school conditions, in France's worst street violence in decades; Paris and several cities entered curfews Monday night.
RAF Typhoon jets to fly defensive missions over Saudi Arabia as missile downed over Riyadh
The Times reports that UK Defence Secretary Wes Streeting has approved RAF Typhoon jets based in Qatar to fly defensive air missions over Saudi Arabia, intercepting Houthi drones and missiles threatening Saudi cities and critical infrastructure; the UK will also send an A400M transport aircraft and military advisers. It is the first publicly confirmed UK commitment of fighter jets to Saudi air defense, after London previously said it would "at this stage" not join strikes. The same day Saudi Arabia said it downed a missile over Riyadh, where the airport remains closed. (follow-up)
Background: The Houthis have carried out 20 attacks on Riyadh's airport since October, which has been closed for more than two weeks; Saudi Arabia has postponed its "Davos in the Desert" summit to 2027.
Political developments and international relations
Turkey submits Saudi-Pakistan joint defense pact to parliament for ratification
Turkey has submitted the Saudi-Pakistan joint defense agreement, known as the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement, to parliament for ratification, Reuters reported on Tuesday, citing three parliamentary sources. The three countries signed the pact in August, under which an armed attack on one member is considered an attack on all; at an emergency meeting in Riyadh earlier this month they agreed to ensure "rapid deployment" of forces in Saudi Arabia. A Turkish official said Turkey's contribution would be limited to military equipment, intelligence sharing and weapons systems, with no ground troops deployed abroad. (single source, unverified)
Background: Turkey condemned Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and offered military technology support plus participation in a Red Sea navigational safety coalition; parliament's foreign affairs commission could debate the pact as early as Friday.
Libya parliament approves maritime deal with Turkey, lifts 2020 boycott
Libya's parliament approved a maritime agreement with Turkey and revoked a 2020 boycott decision, Reuters reported on Tuesday, citing two members of parliament. The deal directly affects the eastern Mediterranean energy chessboard: Greece has long rejected the 2019 Libya-Turkey maritime deal and is seeking to advance an EU-backed undersea power cable project crossing the disputed waters. (single source, unverified)
Background: Greece hopes to resume seabed surveying for the Great Sea Interconnector cable; Turkey says the route crosses waters under the Libya deal and requires prior coordination; US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in Athens last week that Washington would use diplomacy to remove hurdles.
Trump approval falls to record low of 31% ahead of midterms, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds
President Donald Trump's approval rating fell to a record low of 31%, the lowest in either of his terms, as Americans worried about high gasoline prices, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll that closed on Monday. Some 68% disapprove of his handling of the economy, including 37% of self-identified Republicans. On the generic congressional ballot, Democrats led Republicans 47% to 35% — a 12-point advantage, the widest of the current election cycle; losing either chamber could complicate Trump's agenda in his final two years.
Background: The online poll surveyed 1,679 US adults including 1,279 registered voters, with a margin of error of 2 points; at a Kansas rally on Monday, Trump warned Europe over migration and said the US would "burn" like France if Democrats win.
Indonesian markets rebound about 3% as MSCI decision expected by June 30, 2027
The Jakarta benchmark rose about 3% on Tuesday after a record two-day rout, as the stock exchange halved the daily price-fall limit to 7% from 15% and set a 1-rupiah floor for penny shares. The rupiah firmed slightly to about 18,010 per dollar but stayed close to its record low. MSCI is expected to announce its final reclassification decision by 30 June 2027. Goldman Sachs estimates passive outflows of up to $5.6 billion if Indonesia is downgraded, while UBS warned active investors could withdraw another $15 billion. President Prabowo held talks with finance chiefs on Monday, and the OJK regulator vowed continued enforcement against coordinated trading. (follow-up)
Background: MSCI is considering downgrading Indonesia from its emerging-markets index to a standalone market after a record two-day selloff; Jakarta stocks are down about 40% this year, the world's worst-performing major market.
Canada's hot September inflation sends rate-hike bets soaring, TSX futures dip
Reuters reported on Oct. 20 that September inflation data came in above the Bank of Canada's upper limit, sending TSX futures 0.13% lower at 0950 GMT; traders now see a nearly 85% chance of a quarter-point Bank of Canada rate hike next week, according to LSEG. A central bank survey released Monday showed Canadian firms' outlook deteriorated after the collapse of trade talks with the US, while Canada's benchmark 10-year bond yield jumped 13.3 basis points to 3.96%. (single source, unverified)
Background: Canada faces the twin pressures of above-target inflation and collapsed US trade talks; German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said Tuesday that Canada has become "more pro-European than ever" as he pitched Europe's largest economy to investors in Berlin.
Tech companies, research breakthroughs and digital policy
Anthropic in talks with Nscale for a second ~$45 billion compute deal
Bloomberg reported on Oct. 19 (carried by Reuters and TechCrunch; Reuters could not independently verify) that Nvidia-backed Nscale is in advanced talks to supply Anthropic with another roughly $45 billion of AI computing capacity — a second 460-megawatt building at the Monarch campus in West Virginia running Nvidia's Vera Rubin chips. The talks are ongoing and terms could change; Anthropic also holds a right of first refusal on a planned third Monarch building. (single source, unverified)
Background: The news follows a $45 billion six-year deal signed in August; it lands amid investor unease over debt-driven AI infrastructure buildouts, after CoreWeave slumped last week on concerns over its $50 billion debt load and Nscale faces pushback on its $30 billion IPO valuation target.
Sources: Bloomberg (first report), Reuters, TechCrunch (3 outlets; Reuters could not independently verify)
Military developments, security situations and conflicts
Al-Alimi urges Guterres to designate Houthis as terrorists after Shabwah camp attack
Yemen's Presidential Leadership Council chairman Rashad al-Alimi spoke with UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres from the evening of October 19 into October 20, formally requesting international action through the Security Council to designate the Houthis as a terrorist organization, enforce an arms embargo, cut off their financing and arms supplies, and hold their backers accountable (Yemeni foreign ministry via SABA). Authorities have opened an investigation into why large numbers of recruits were lined up in the open despite the known missile threat; Ataq hospital in Shabwah is overwhelmed, its blood bank running low, with critical patients transferred long-distance to Hadramout and Aden. The toll of 58 dead, more than 200 wounded and 14 missing remains preliminary and may rise. (follow-up)
Background: On October 19 the Houthis fired three ballistic missiles at the al-Alam camp in Shabwah province, hitting recruits lined up for training — the deadliest single attack since Yemen's civil war reignited this year.
Storm Adam death toll in Spain rises to at least five, possibly six
The death toll from Storm Adam has risen to at least five, confirmed Tuesday morning by Euronews and The Olive Press. The fifth victim was killed Monday afternoon in Benaoján, Málaga province, when rain-triggered rockfall struck his vehicle on a secondary road. Authorities are also checking whether a farmer found near Oliva died in the storm, which would raise the toll to six. The storm has eased and stay-at-home orders fell from 800,000 to about 87,000 residents, though weather warnings remain in nine provinces; Prime Minister Sánchez will visit Valencia on Tuesday. (follow-up)
Background: The floods recall the October 2024 Valencia disaster that killed more than 230 people; scientists say human-driven climate change is intensifying Mediterranean autumn storms.
Australian MP Haines car-ramming: driver charged on three counts, Haines lost a leg and remains critical
The driver was formally charged Tuesday with dangerous driving causing serious injury, intentionally causing serious injury, and the Commonwealth offence of harming a Commonwealth public official; he faces Wangaratta court on Wednesday. Australian media identified him as Brendan Nugent, 43, an environmental and forestry campaigner from Tarrawingee reportedly known to police; his father said Haines had been a family friend for over 20 years. Haines underwent surgery overnight, lost a leg, and doctors are fighting to save the other as she remains in critical condition. Police say the attack appears targeted but isolated, with the motive still unknown. (follow-up)
Background: Haines, the independent MP for Indi, was deliberately rammed outside her electorate office on Monday by a Toyota LandCruiser; political violence is extremely rare in Australia.
Sources: CNN, The Times, ABC / The Sydney Morning Herald (via CNN) (3 outlets)
Shallow 6.3-magnitude earthquake strikes offshore Vanuatu; no tsunami threat
The US Geological Survey registered a magnitude 6.3 earthquake at 04:20 UTC on Oct. 20, about 197 km northwest of Port-Olry, Vanuatu, at a shallow depth of 16 km; EMSC and India's National Centre for Seismology reported the event at 6.3 and 6.4 respectively. The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center said there was no tsunami threat, and the USGS issued a green alert indicating a low likelihood of casualties or damage; the epicenter lies offshore with no population centers nearby.
Background: Vanuatu sits on the New Hebrides subduction zone along the boundary of the Australian and Pacific plates, one of the most seismically active regions on the Pacific Ring of Fire.
China-related news (international media coverage only)
China leaves loan rates steady for 17th consecutive month, in line with expectations
China kept its benchmark lending rates unchanged for the 17th straight month in October on Tuesday, in line with market expectations: the one-year loan prime rate (LPR) stayed at 3.00% and the five-year LPR at 3.50%. In a Reuters survey of 22 market participants conducted on Monday, all predicted no change to either rate. The steady rates suggest policymakers are in no rush to roll out fresh monetary easing after a strong third-quarter GDP outcome of 4.5%, as they focus on reforming the loan pricing framework — Governor Pan Gongsheng said Monday the central bank is considering switching its main policy rate to the overnight reverse repurchase rate.
Background: China's economy is running at two speeds this year — strong factory output and exports masking weak consumption and a property investment slump; January-September growth of 4.6% sits inside the full-year 4.5%-5.0% target range.
Mizuho and Daiwa clear final hurdles to launch independent China securities units
Japanese banks Mizuho Financial Group and Daiwa Securities are poised to launch fully independent securities operations in China after clearing crucial regulatory hurdles, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday, citing a source familiar with the matter. Mizuho applied to set up its unit in November 2023, while Daiwa this year agreed to buy out local joint venture partners in a $100 million deal for a wholly owned structure. Meanwhile, Citigroup has waited since late 2021 and market maker Citadel Securities since early 2025 for Beijing's final go-ahead. (single source, unverified)
Background: The green lights highlight Japanese financial firms' expansion in China, setting them apart from US peers still waiting on permits.
Sources: Bloomberg, via Reuters (single source, unverified)
